Vol.9,No.3,issue 2

Diyala Journal of Engineering Sciences DJES

Volume 9, No. 3, Pages: 12-23, September 2016

(Received: 11/1/2015; Accepted: 3/2/2015)

Cellular automata -dynamic model for urban growth Baqubah City

Zainab Ahmed Al-kaissi

Department of Roads & Transportation Engineering-Engineering College- Al-mustansiryah University

Ali Hussein Hameed

Department of Civil-Engineering college –Diyala University

DOI:https://dx.doi.org/10.24237/djes.2016.09302

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ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes land use change in Baqubah city the capital of Iraq's Diyala Governorate, in the period from 2004 to 2010, using a cellular automata model. No previous research about this study in Iraq. The simulation experiment was carried out in the Dinamica EGO platform to 2030 year and the results revealed a constrained urban sprawl. The simulation outputs were validated using a multi-resolution procedure based on a fuzzy similarity index 81.5%, and showed a satisfactory fitness in relation to the historical reference data. The simulation scenario for the year 2030 showed an increase in the medium residential, high residential and road by (23%, 73%, and 11% respectively). As well as a significant decrease the orchard, vegetation, water, open area and mix by (41%, 36%, 20%, 23%, and 12% respectively)

Keywords: cellular automata, dynamic, model, urban, growth, the Dinamica

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